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Economy in Brief

IFO Details Show Widespread Gloom in Germany
by Robert Brusca December 23, 2008

With the release of the new detail, the IFO headline has not changed but the report now reveals how impacted the whole of the survey is from the ongoing weakness and gathering gloom.

Germany’s IFO headline at 82.6 in Dec. from 96.3 in Nov. is now the weakest since 1991. The current manufacturing situation is in the bottom 19th percent of its range for that period. Business expectations, activity and orders on hand all are the worst readings on record for the period. The reading for ‘Foreign orders on hand’ is now the relative strongest category and it resides in the bottom 25% of its range.

The three-month outlook for expected MFG activity has slipped to its weakest reading of the period since 1998. Orders, expectations for Retailing and Wholesaling are around the bottom 20% of their respective ranges. Despite foreign orders on hand having held up the expectations for export business on the part of manufactures is the worst of the survey period. Employment expectations in manufacturing are also their worst of the period. The German IFO survey leaves little cheer for Christmas.

IFO Survey: Germany
  Percent: Yr/Yr INDEX NUMBERS
  Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Current Average Percentile
Biz Climate -20.0% -17.8% -13.4% -10.9% -10.5% 82.6 96.3 0.0%
Current Situation -18.1% -14.2% -8.9% -9.4% -7.5% 88.8 96.3 18.0%
Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos -22.0% -21.3% -17.6% -12.6% -13.4% 76.8 96.4 0.0%
 
Manufacturing: Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Current Average Percentile
Current Situation
MFG -25.8% -19.5% -12.4% -11.9% -8.9% 81.1 93.5 19.6%
Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos
MFG -27.0% -25.4% -21.5% -15.8% -16.9% 70.8 95.8 0.0%
Activity (m/m)
MFG -25.1% -17.8% -7.7% -10.1% -8.5% 75.1 96.9 0.0%
Demand M/M
MFG -27.5% -25.8% -15.3% -16.0% -10.8% 70.1 96.5 0.0%
Orders on hand
MFG -26.7% -22.5% -13.2% -14.7% -11.2% 73.6 96.1 0.0%
Foreign orders on hand
MFG -23.3% -17.6% -14.0% -9.7% -7.7% 84.6 94.8 24.5%
Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indices
IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead
3-Mos ahead Percent: Yr/Yr INDEX NUMBERS
Expected Activity Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Current Average Percentile
MFG -24.8% -22.2% -13.9% -9.2% -10.8% 77.3 96.7 0.0%
Orders Expectations Changes over 12-months      
Retail Orders  -22.0% -24.0% -5.0% -4.0% -10.0% -32.0 -16.1 22.4%
Wholesale -32.0% -30.0% -16.0% -12.0% -15.0% -26.0 -12.4 17.9%
EXPORT Biz Expectations
MFG -23.3% -19.0% -13.3% -9.6% -7.2% 80.7 98.1 0.0%
Employment Expectations
MFG (Since June 1997) -20.6% -15.5% -9.8% -8.7% -8.3% 87.4 96.2 0.0%
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