Recent Updates

  • Philippines: Performance of Agriculture (Q4); Korea: Population (2017); Indonesia:ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • New Zealand Motor Vehicle Registrations, New Zealand PMI (Dec); Australia: Lending Finance, Overseas Arrivals & Departures (Nov)
  • Markit PMI: Manufacturing Survey - New Zealand (Dec)
  • Saxony Retail Trade (Nov), Building Permits (Nov)
  • Germany: Building Permits (Nov), Bremen CPI (Dec)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Decline is 'Everywhere' !
by Robert Brusca December 12, 2008

The contribution to growth from IP is weakening sharply. The decline in IP, one that is an inflation-adjusted reading, is at a -13.5% rate in Q4. Consumer goods output is the strong sector, oddly enough, falling at a -3.8% pace early in Q4. Intermediate goods output is falling at a 19% annual rate in the quarter. Capital goods output is falling at a 15% annual rate in Q4. The fourth quarter is cropping up to be extremely weak.

The sequential growth rates from 12-mo to 6-Mos to 3Mos also show that the annual rate of decline in output is generally getting worse or staying near its worst growth rates across industries.

The results for the key large countries mirror the overall findings. Spain whose numbers are simply more volatile that the rest, shows the smallest quarter to date decline. I suspect that will change as more numbers roll in. Spain is not doing well. Germany, France and Italy each show a larger Yr/Yr decline in IP than the EMU-wide average for the current quarter. For Yr/Yr growth in IP France, Italy and Spain are worse than the EMU-wide average for MFG output.

The sting of decline is sharp in EMU and it has hit very hard in the last two months IP has been in sporadic decline in EMU as it had fallen (m/m) five times in 2007. But through October in 2008 IP already has fallen in seven of ten months. Moreover the declines in Sept and Oct have been severe and, of course, back to back. Output has dropped in five of the past six months. The outlook for the final two months is for the figures to stay bad or to get worse. No wonder the EU finally got around to approving a stimulus plan worth about 1.5% of GDP as the IMF suggested. There is no VAT cut as Germany’s Merkel has been opposed to that. But the EU may review further stimulus options later.

E-zone MFG IP
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Oct
08
Sep
08
Oct
08
Sep
08
Oct
08
Sep
08
 
Ezone Detail Oct
08
Sep
08
Aug
08
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-4
MFG -1.3% -1.9% 0.7% -9.8% -6.0% -9.0% -5.7% -5.1% -2.7% -13.5%
Consumer 0.0% -0.7% -0.5% -4.8% -4.8% -5.3% -3.5% -3.3% -3.1% -3.8%
C-Durables -1.4% -2.5% 0.8% -11.4% -10.0% -13.2% -7.1% -8.1% -6.5%  
C-Non-durables 0.3% -0.8% -0.4% -3.5% -5.0% -3.7% -3.7% -2.4% -2.9%  
Intermediate -2.0% -3.0% 1.2% -13.9% -8.4% -11.8% -7.2% -6.9% -3.7% -19.3%
Capital -2.0% -1.9% 1.3% -9.9% -4.2% -11.0% -3.3% -4.7% -0.9% -15.6%
Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG
  Mo/Mo Oct
08
Sep
08
Oct
08
Sep
08
Oct
08
Sep
08
 
MFG Only Oct
08
Sep
08
Aug
08
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-2
Date
Germany: -2.2% -3.6% 3.3% -9.8% -8.5% -11.0% -6.6% -3.9% -1.8% -19.2%
France:IPx
Construct'n
-2.7% -0.8% -0.5% -14.7% 0.0% -12.3% -4.9% -7.2% -2.3% -18.3%
Italy -1.1% -2.9% 0.1% -14.6% -15.2% -12.9% -9.8% -6.8% -6.5% -16.7%
Spain 0.3% 2.8% -10.1% -26.1% 15.3% -29.4% 14.1% -11.2% -4.7% -8.7%
UK -1.3% -1.0% -0.6% -10.8% -7.2% -8.3% -6.2% -4.9% -3.2% -12.1%
close
large image