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Economy in Brief

German Industrial Output Trends is Weaker Than Expectedly
by Robert Brusca December 8, 2008

German industrial output fell by 2.1% in October and its sequential growth rates show a steady drumbeat of negativism more than an acceleration of weakness. This is in stark contrast to the unraveling in orders. But order weakness always takes several months to become embedded in the behavior of output so the steadier path of output is not much in which to take solace. Finally it is the consumer sector that it showing some resiliency. But capital goods and intermediate goods industry output each show persisting deep if not accelerating declines in output. With the economic crisis spreading this resiliency by consumers will not be long lived. MFG IP shows relatively more weakness. And orders are pointing the way much lower.


Total German IP
Saar except m/m Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo Quarter-to-Date
IP total -2.1% -3.3% 3.2% -8.7% -10.5% -3.9% -17.8%
Consumer Goods -0.4% -2.3% 3.5% 2.8% -1.6% -3.4% -4.8%
Capital Goods -3.1% -3.1% 3.7% -10.1% -14.6% -4.6% -21.4%
Intermediate Goods -2.2% -4.6% 2.9% -15.3% -11.6% -3.4% -23.5%
Memo              
Construction  -3.0% -3.0% 6.4% 0.5% -5.1% -4.3% -16.5%
MFG IP -2.2% -3.6% 3.3% -9.8% -11.0% -3.9% -19.2%
MFG Orders -6.1% -8.3% 3.5% -36.8% -28.3% -17.3% -48.2%
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