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Economy in Brief

OECD LEIs PLUNGE and It's Only September…
by Robert Brsuca December 5, 2008

The LEIs from the OECD are plunging and the outlook is not for more severe slowdowns across the region and for many key members. The Euro Area and the US figures show the most rapid descent while Japan ’s index is going down for the second time in this ‘cycle’.

India , China and Russia are showing signs of increased pain. The Russian index is down especially sharply. This worldwide slowdown is clobbering all those countries that had been expected to be resilient. Russia is being hurt due to its status as a commodity currency, especially as an oil producer.

The drops in the US and European indices are as severe, or more severe, than in the last US business cycle.

OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators
Growth Progression-SAAR
  3Mos 6Mos 12mos Yr-Ago
OECD -9.2% -6.7% -3.8% 1.6%
OECD 7 -10.1% -7.3% -4.5% 1.0%
OECD Europe -9.1% -7.4% -4.5% 1.7%
OECD Japan -7.2% -4.3% -0.8% -1.4%
OECD US -11.4% -7.7% -5.3% 1.4%
Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals:
  Recent six 6Mo Ago 12Mo Ago 18MO Ago
OECD -6.7% -0.9% 0.1% 3.2%
OECD 7 -7.3% -1.6% -0.5% 2.5%
OECD Europe -7.4% -1.5% 0.9% 2.6%
OECD Japan -4.3% 2.8% -3.5% 0.6%
OECD US -7.7% -2.8% -0.4% 3.2%
Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED.
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