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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Drift Sideways
Canadian Factory Sector Looks Solid
Canadian factory orders fell for the second month in a row in July but because of an order surge back in May...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Eases; Prices Improve
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business
Conditions declined to 19.0 during September from 25.6 in August
British Chamber of Commerce Cuts Forecasts
The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) today announced cutting its outlook for the UK economy...
U.S. Retail Sales Edge Higher
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (6.6% y/y) during August
following a 0.7% July gain...
by Robert Brusca December 2, 2008
The Euro Area PPI dropped by 0.8% in October after dropping by
0.3% in September. This drop reduced the total ex-Construction
inflation rate to 6.3% Yr/Yr. Inflation
has dropped to a 4.1% pace over six months and is falling at a 5.8%
pace over three months. Ex-energy
inflation at the PPI level also fell in October. Its pace has dropped
to 3.2% over 12 months 2% over six months and minus one percent over
three months. Germany ,
Italy and the UK each saw ex-energy inflation declining in October.
Three month ex-energy inflation is also well-behaved across these three
countries, falling for two of them and flat over three months in
Germany . PPI inflation
remains quite elevated over 12 months for headline as well for
ex-energy inflation in the Zone as well as in these three key
countries. But with the economy so weak the inflation overshoot is
rightly being ignored. Prospects remain for inflation to fall further.
Economies are weakening and spot oil has fallen below $48/bbl.
| Euro Area and UK PPI Trends | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M/M | SAAR | |||||
| Euro Area 15 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | Yr/Yr | Y/Y Yr Ago |
| Harmonized PPI ex Construction | -0.8% | -0.3% | -5.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
| Excl Energy | -0.4% | 0.0% | -1.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Capital Goods | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% |
| Intermediate & Capital Goods | -0.6% | 0.0% | -1.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| Energy | -2.0% | -1.0% | -18.9% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 4.3% |
| MFG | -1.5% | -0.5% | -9.9% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% |
| Germany | 0.0% | 0.3% | -1.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 1.7% |
| Germany Ex Energy | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Italy | -1.5% | -0.5% | -7.7% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% |
| Italy Ex Energy | -0.7% | -0.1% | -2.3% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| UK | -4.2% | -1.0% | -26.7% | -0.8% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
| UK Ex Energy | -0.5% | 0.3% | -0.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
