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Economy in Brief

France Business Climate Report
by Robert Brusca November 25, 2008

The Insee business climate indicator is plunging. The overall index dropped to 80 in November from 87 in October and now sits in the bottom 14% of its range going back to 1990. It is the 10th weakest climate reading on record. The table below is for the manufacturing sector which is similarly weak. For manufacturers in France the current industrial trend is the worst on record. The price level is in the bottom 16% of its range. The recent trend is weak, bottom 20 percent of its range. But the outlook trend at a -28 raw reading is the worst in the history of the series - bottom of the range. Orders and demand are weak, in the bottom 21% of their range. Foreign orders are relatively weak and reside in the bottom 16 percent of their range. Meanwhile inventory levels are relatively high in the 87th percentile of their range.

Industry in France undergoing severe downward pressure. Today’s data on German GDP suggested that its GDP was hurt the most by drops in exports. But then Germany is an exporting economy. Germany’s main trade partners, like France, are in trouble so it looks like this sort of weakness is something we will be seeing the coming months in Germany as well.

INSEE Manufacturing Survey
          Since Jan 1990 Since Jan 1990
OUTLOOK Nov
08
Oct
08
Sep
08
Aug
08
%tile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Industrial Prod Trend -69 -66 -42 -38 0.0 227 44 -69 113 -7
Industrial Price Level -17 14 27 41 16.7 197 68 -34 102 9
Production                    
Recent Trend -22 -12 -8 -2 19.7 214 35 -36 71 5
Likely trend -28 -22 -11 -6 0.0 227 34 -28 62 6
Orders/Demand                    
Orders&Demand -45 -32 -25 -22 21.3 211 29 -65 94 -15
FgnOrders&Demand -46 -26 -28 -22 16.2 215 37 -62 99 -10
Inventories                    
Levels 26 22 18 17 87.9 6 30 -3 33 13
Prices                    
Likely Sales Price Trend 0 8 14 16 50.0 110 25 -25 50 0
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