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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell
by Tom Moeller October 21, 2008

According to the International Council of Shopping Centers, chain store sales fell 1.6% last week. The decline more than reversed the gains of the prior two weeks. The level of sales so far October were 1.0% below the September average which fell 1.9% from August.

The level of sales during the latest week was near the lowest since December of last year.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs fell 0.2% (-4.8% y/y).

The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 10/18/08 10/11/08 Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 477.0 484.7 0.9% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6%
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