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Economy in Brief

ADP Report: Payroll Employment Decline Moderated
by Tom Moeller October 1, 2008

The payroll processor ADP released its National Employment Report for September. Private nonfarm payrolls were indicated to have fallen 8,000 after a downwardly revised 37,000 decline during August.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on September payroll employment this Friday. Last month, the 37,000 worker decline in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 101,000 worker decline in the BLS measure of private sector payrolls.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

Goods producing payrolls fell by 72,000 (-2.8% y/y). The largest decline was amongst medium sized payrolls which fell 40,000 (-3.1% y/y) followed by a 16,000 (-1.5% y/y) drop in small sized payrolls. Large payrolls fell 16,000 (-4.6% y/y).

Employment in the service producing industry offset that weakness and rose by 64,000 (1.0% y/y). Small payrolls rose 44,000 (1.5% y/y) while medium sized payrolls increased 10,000 (1.0% y/y). Large service producing payrolls rose by 10,000 (-0.2% y/y), the most for any month since last November.

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's

USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

LAXEPA@USECON September August Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) -8,000 -37,000 0.3% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8%
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