Recent Updates

  • China: Social Financing Stock & Flow Final (May); Korea: Import & Export Price Indexes, Home Sales (May); Philippines: Auto Sales (May); Thailand: Tourist Arrivals (May)
  • Australia: Residential Property Price Indexes (Q1)
  • Spain: *SPAIN SPPI REBASED FROM 2010=100 TO 2015=100
  • Spain: Services Price Indexes (Q1)
  • Germany: State CPI: Saxony-Anhalt (May-Press)
  • UK: LSL ACAD House Price Indexes, Visa Expenditure Index (May)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Orders Just Fall Off the Table in the UK
by Robert Brusca September 17, 2008

Orders overall and export orders have fallen off very sharply from August to September. The decline of 16 points in month-to-month export orders in September is a record going back to 1988. This drop occurs in the face of a weakening Sterling which implies an improvement in UK competitiveness. Total orders fell by 13 points month-to-month and that is the fourth largest m/m drop since the late 1980s. All of the outsized drops in total orders have come since October 2006.

While changes in orders on the month demonstrate a very severe drop, current readings on the diffusion levels remain higher, in the 55th percentile for total orders and the 72nd percentile for export orders. – lower but not as draconian as the monthly changes. Still both overall and total orders are deep net negative readings. The volume for output in the look ahead survey is at a new low. Prices expected in the next four months are still at all time highs: 100% of their range. The NTC survey available through August shows MFG is low in its range, in the bottom 15 percent. .

The UK economy looks extremely weak. Current levels in the CBI Industry sector are not quite as severely weak as for CBI orders but the pace of decline is something to have some real worries over and the outlook is as bad as it ever has been.

UK Industrial Volume Data CBI Survey
Reported: Sep
08
Aug
08
Jul
08
Jun
08
12MO Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
Total Orders -26 -13 -8 1 -2 55% 9 -40 49
Export Orders -25 -9 -7 -5 -6 72% 3 -40 43
Stocks: Fin Goods 21 18 13 8 13 80% 23 -2 25
Looking ahead
Output Volume: Next 3 Months 11 -13 -7 2 4 0% 28 -13 41
Average Prices for Next 3 Months 31 34 28 30 24 100% 34 -20 54
From end 2000
Compare to CIPS MFG
Aug
08
Jul
08
Jun
08
May
08
12MO Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
UK MFG 45.93 44.13 45.88 49.46 50.21 15% 56.32 44.13 12
close
large image