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Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
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U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
by Robert Brusca September 15, 2008
Italy’s inflation trends have yet to show decisive signs of turning lower. Italy’s total CPI is still pressing higher. The HICP Core rate shows a more hopeful sign of inflation topping but it shows no clear sign either of moving lower.
The three-month and six-month growth rates are flat at 3.8% and slightly below the Yr/Yr rate of 4.2%. The CPI that offers more inflation detail shows inflation slightly higher over 3 months and six months at 4.2% compared to year/year inflation at 4.1%. But the signals from the HICP and Italian domestic CPI rate are much the same. Across the various Italian CPI commodity categories, inflation is showing neither a tendency to accelerate or decelerate with inflation at a diffusion reading of 50 over three months or six months.
While energy prices are turning lower, there is optimism that inflation will turn lower.
Italy HICP and CPI details | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mo/Mo % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
HICP Total | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
Core | #N/A | -0.2% | 0.4% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2.0% |
CPI | |||||||
All | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
CPI ex Tobacco | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
Food | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
Alcohol | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
Clothing & Shoes | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
Rent & Utilities | -0.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 1.1% |
Housing &Furniture | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
Health Care | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
Transport | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 1.4% |
Communication | -0.9% | -1.1% | 0.4% | -6.2% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -8.4% |
Recreation & Culture | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
Education | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
Restaurant & Hotel | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
Other | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
Diffusion | 50.0% | 50.0% | 91.7% | ||||
Type: Diffusion: Compared to 6-mo 12-mo Yr-Ago. |