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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Slips in April
The Philadelphia Fed reported manufacturing conditions weakened in April...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.1% y/y) during March...
U.S. Business Inventories and Sales Growth Slows in February
Total business inventories increased 0.3% (4.9% year-on-year) during February...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decrease 5,000 to Yet Another 50-Year Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 192,000 (-15.4% y/y) during the week ended April 13...
EMU PMIs Go on Hold in April
The EMU PMI composite index stalled April, at a still growth-indicating 51.3, the same level as in March...
by Robert Brusca September 15, 2008
Italy’s inflation trends have yet to show decisive signs of turning lower. Italy’s total CPI is still pressing higher. The HICP Core rate shows a more hopeful sign of inflation topping but it shows no clear sign either of moving lower.
The three-month and six-month growth rates are flat at 3.8% and slightly below the Yr/Yr rate of 4.2%. The CPI that offers more inflation detail shows inflation slightly higher over 3 months and six months at 4.2% compared to year/year inflation at 4.1%. But the signals from the HICP and Italian domestic CPI rate are much the same. Across the various Italian CPI commodity categories, inflation is showing neither a tendency to accelerate or decelerate with inflation at a diffusion reading of 50 over three months or six months.
While energy prices are turning lower, there is optimism that inflation will turn lower.
| Italy HICP and CPI details | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
| Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Core | #N/A | -0.2% | 0.4% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2.0% |
| CPI | |||||||
| All | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| CPI ex Tobacco | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Food | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Alcohol | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Clothing & Shoes | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Rent & Utilities | -0.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 1.1% |
| Housing &Furniture | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Health Care | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Transport | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 1.4% |
| Communication | -0.9% | -1.1% | 0.4% | -6.2% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -8.4% |
| Recreation & Culture | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Education | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
| Other | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Diffusion | 50.0% | 50.0% | 91.7% | ||||
| Type: Diffusion: Compared to 6-mo 12-mo Yr-Ago. | |||||||
