Recent Updates
- New Zealand: External Migration; Credit Card Statistics (Aug)
- Markit PMI: Manufacturing Survey - Japan (Flash - Sep)
- Japan: Tokyo CPI, CPI, TSE Tokyo Pro Market (Aug), Wage Indexes, Monthly Labor Survey (Jul)
- Korea: 20 Days of Trade (Sep), PPI, Domestic Supply Price and Total Output Price Indexes (Aug); Thailand: International Trade Press, Rice Export Price (Aug); Macao: Public Finance (Jul); India: CPI-AL/RL (Aug); China: Soufun 100-city
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Down Further
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 201,000 (-21.2% y/y) during the week ended September 15...
U.S. Housing Starts Rebound After Two Months of Decline
New home building activity improved last month. Total housing
starts rose 9.2% during August (9.4% y/y)
Special Topics
by Robert Brusca September 15, 2008
Italy’s inflation trends have yet to show decisive signs of turning lower. Italy’s total CPI is still pressing higher. The HICP Core rate shows a more hopeful sign of inflation topping but it shows no clear sign either of moving lower.
The three-month and six-month growth rates are flat at 3.8% and slightly below the Yr/Yr rate of 4.2%. The CPI that offers more inflation detail shows inflation slightly higher over 3 months and six months at 4.2% compared to year/year inflation at 4.1%. But the signals from the HICP and Italian domestic CPI rate are much the same. Across the various Italian CPI commodity categories, inflation is showing neither a tendency to accelerate or decelerate with inflation at a diffusion reading of 50 over three months or six months.
While energy prices are turning lower, there is optimism that inflation will turn lower.
| Italy HICP and CPI details | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
| Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Core | #N/A | -0.2% | 0.4% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2.0% |
| CPI | |||||||
| All | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| CPI ex Tobacco | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Food | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Alcohol | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Clothing & Shoes | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Rent & Utilities | -0.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 1.1% |
| Housing &Furniture | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Health Care | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Transport | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 1.4% |
| Communication | -0.9% | -1.1% | 0.4% | -6.2% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -8.4% |
| Recreation & Culture | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Education | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
| Other | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Diffusion | 50.0% | 50.0% | 91.7% | ||||
| Type: Diffusion: Compared to 6-mo 12-mo Yr-Ago. | |||||||
