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by Robert Brusca September 15, 2008
Italy’s inflation trends have yet to show decisive signs of turning lower. Italy’s total CPI is still pressing higher. The HICP Core rate shows a more hopeful sign of inflation topping but it shows no clear sign either of moving lower.
The three-month and six-month growth rates are flat at 3.8% and slightly below the Yr/Yr rate of 4.2%. The CPI that offers more inflation detail shows inflation slightly higher over 3 months and six months at 4.2% compared to year/year inflation at 4.1%. But the signals from the HICP and Italian domestic CPI rate are much the same. Across the various Italian CPI commodity categories, inflation is showing neither a tendency to accelerate or decelerate with inflation at a diffusion reading of 50 over three months or six months.
While energy prices are turning lower, there is optimism that inflation will turn lower.
| Italy HICP and CPI details | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
| Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Core | #N/A | -0.2% | 0.4% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2.0% |
| CPI | |||||||
| All | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| CPI ex Tobacco | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Food | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Alcohol | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Clothing & Shoes | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Rent & Utilities | -0.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 1.1% |
| Housing &Furniture | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Health Care | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Transport | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 1.4% |
| Communication | -0.9% | -1.1% | 0.4% | -6.2% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -8.4% |
| Recreation & Culture | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Education | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
| Other | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Diffusion | 50.0% | 50.0% | 91.7% | ||||
| Type: Diffusion: Compared to 6-mo 12-mo Yr-Ago. | |||||||
