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Economy in Brief

UK IP Unequivocally Heads Lower
by Robert Brusca September 9, 2008

UK industrial output weakness is hardly a surprise after the sharp break posted by the UK’s July PPI. Clearly, weakness is at work and it is having an impact on prices due to its severity. Manufacturing output continues to decline over 12 months; its rate of descent accelerates over ever shorter time spans. All major MFG output groups are showing declines even year-over-year. Consumer durables are off by 5.1%. Nondurables are off by 0.8%. Intermediate goods output is off by 2.4% and capital goods output is off by 1.4%. In addition each category is showing growth rates that are progressively weaker in pace from twelve months to six months to three months. The UK slowdown is quite broad-based and quite entrenched. Its progress in Q3 already points to a decline in the quarter that is well underway.

UK IP and MFG
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Jul
08
Jun
08
Jul
08
Jun
08
Jul
08
Jun
08
 
UK MFG Jul
08
Jun
08
May
08
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q3
Date
MFG -0.2% -0.5% -0.4% -4.1% -4.1% -3.0% -1.9% -1.4% -1.5% -3.8%
Consumer
C-Durables -1.6% -0.3% -0.9% -10.9% -5.9% -6.0% -2.8% -5.1% -4.3% -12.1%
C-Nondurables 0.2% -0.4% -0.8% -3.9% -5.9% -3.0% -3.0% -0.8% -1.2% -2.0%
Intermediate -0.9% 0.5% -0.8% -4.9% -0.8% -2.7% -2.1% -2.4% -1.4% -5.1%
Capital 0.0% -1.0% -0.4% -5.3% -4.3% -3.2% -3.7% -1.4% -2.4% -4.6%
Memo: Detail 1Mo% 1Mo% 1Mo% 3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q3
Date
Food Drink &
Tobacco
-0.2% -0.9% -1.0% -8.0% -10.2% -6.0% -4.9% -2.9% -2.6% -6.6%
Textile & Leather 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 7.6% 0.0% 4.9% 3.8% 1.5% -0.1% 7.8%
Motor Vehicles
& Trailer
2.1% -1.0% -3.9% -11.2% -12.4% -2.1% -2.3% 0.4% -1.6% 0.2%
Mining and Quarry -3.7% 0.3% 0.7% -10.6% 2.2% -7.8% -8.5% -9.3% -4.5% -18.3%
Electricity, Gas
& H2O
1.0% 2.1% -4.2% -4.9% -2.3% 2.2% -4.4% 1.6% -1.0% 5.6%
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