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Economy in Brief

ADP Report: Payroll Employment Fell 33,000 in August
by Tom Moeller September 4, 2008

The ADP National Employment Report, from the payroll processor, indicated that August private nonfarm payrolls fell 33,000 after a downwardly revised uptick of 1,000 during July. The decline about matched expectations for an August drop of 30,000.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on August payroll employment tomorrow. Last month, the 1,000 worker rise in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 76,000 worker decline in the BLS measure of private sector payrolls.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

Goods producing payrolls fell by 78,000 (-2.6% y/y) and the monthly declines were spread fairly evenly between large (-4.6% y/y), medium (-2.8% y/y) and small (-1.3% y/y) payrolls.

Employment in the service producing industry rose by 45,000 (1.1% y/y). Small payrolls rose 36,000 (1.6% y/y) while medium sized payrolls inched up 8,000 (1.1% y/y). Large service producing payrolls ticked up by an even smaller 1,000 (-0.3% y/y).

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's

USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

The Fed's latest Beige Book can be found here.

[email protected] August July Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) -33,000 1,000 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8%
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