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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Ticked Up
by Tom Moeller September 3, 2008

According to the International Council of Shopping Centers, chain store sales inched up another 0.1% last week after the 0.2% uptick during the week prior. For all of August sales rose 0.2% from the July average after that month's 0.5% rise.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.3% (-4.4% y/y) and that reversed the prior week's increase.

The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

The Advantage of Flexible Targeting Rules from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 08/29/08 08/22/08 Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 495.1 494.7 2.2% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6%
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