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Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 8.8 during February...
EMU-16 Trade Flows and Balance
EMU-wide exports ticked lower in December as imports were flat...
U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
by Robert Brusca August 22, 2008
Import growth in the Euro Area is still firm while export growth is fading. Import growth is of course is supported by strength in oil imports, much of that on the price side. For manufactured goods both exports and imports are weak over 12 months with imports falling by 1.8% and exports up by a scant 0.8%.
The accompanying chart tells the story of the trends with trade deficits posted in five of the past seven months. Europe is slowing down. Europe’s exports are slowing down. It’s a strong euro, weak domestic growth and a weakening global economy at work that is producing these results.
| Euro Area 15-Trade Trends for Goods | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m% | % Saar | |||||
| Jun-08 | May-08 | 3M | 6M | 12M | 12M Ago | |
| Balance* | €€ (2,954) | €€ (1,035) | €€ (861) | €€ (440) | €€ 1,543 | €€ (1,610) |
| Exports | ||||||
| All exports | 1.4% | -4.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 10.1% |
| Food and drinks | -0.4% | -0.7% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 11.4% |
| Raw materials | 2.4% | -1.1% | 23.4% | 31.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% |
| Other | 1.5% | -5.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 9.9% |
| MFG | 1.1% | -3.8% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 0.8% | 13.3% |
| Imports | ||||||
| All imports | 2.9% | -3.0% | 14.8% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 3.8% |
| Food and drinks | 0.6% | 0.2% | 7.9% | -2.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| Raw materials | -1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 15.5% |
| Other | 3.2% | -3.3% | 16.0% | 15.6% | 11.2% | 3.0% |
| MFG | 0.3% | -1.3% | -0.3% | 3.8% | -1.7% | 9.9% |
| *Millions of Euros; mo or period average | ||||||
