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Economy in Brief

Japan’s Economy Watcher’s Index Plunges
by Robert Brusca August 8, 2008

Too much watching, not enough spending?

Japan’s economy watchers index has dropped sharply. Its components are all on 5-Year lows and have been that way for two months running. The NTC MFG index is on a five year low. The Teikoku industry readings are on five year lows. Japan’s own LEI has been weak but in the OECD treatment the trend restored indices have Japan’s index on a rising trend, but steady month-to-month. The readings in these Japan-based reports are much weaker than the OECD’s. And Japan is looking very weak.

Key Japanese surveys
  Raw readings of each survey Percent of 5Yr range*
  Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08
Diffusion
Economy Watchers 29.3 29.5 32.1 35.5 7.0% 0.0% 1.2%
Employment 24.1 26.4 31.9 33.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Future 30.8 32.1 35.1 36.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NTC MFG 47.1 46.5 47.7 48.6 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50 neutral/weighted diffusion)
MFG 32.9 34.4 35.6 36.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Retail 28.3 28.7 31.5 32.1 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
Wholesale 31.0 32.4 33.9 34.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Services 36.2 37.5 39.7 40.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Construction 25.5 26.9 27.1 28.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
100 is high; Zero is low
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