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Economy in Brief

German MFG Orders Have Turned Horrifically Weak
by Robert Brusca August 6, 2008

Historically German foreign orders have been the more volatile of the two series (foreign and domestic orders for MFG goods). The current drop is a steep one indeed. The aggressive growth rates show that growth fore both domestic and foreign orders is getting weaker as the time period to calculated growth gets shorter. This is accelerating weakness.

Quarter-to-date the growth rates are terribly weak. This series is now complete for Q2. In Q2 total orders are falling at a 15.4% annual lead by a 21.3% drop in Foreign orders. Sales are falling too as Consumer sales are off at an 11% pace even capital goods real sales are off at a 5.8% annual rate in the quarter. The German economy’s factory sector is weakening at a rapid pace.

German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin
Real and SA % M/M % Saar
  Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 3-Mo 6-Mo 12-Mo Yr Ago QTR-2-Date
Total Orders -2.9% -1.4% -1.7% -21.7% -11.5% -8.4% 16.9% -15.4%
Foreign -5.1% 0.1% -3.7% -30.0% -16.3% -14.1% 23.4% -21.3%
Domestic -0.6% -2.8% 0.3% -11.9% -6.1% -1.7% 10.2% -8.8%
Real Sector Sales
MFG/Mining -0.6% -0.4% -1.0% -7.7% -3.9% 2.1% 5.9% -7.2%
Consumer  -1.6% 0.2% -2.0% -12.8% -6.6% -2.9% 2.2% -11.0%
Consumer Durables 2.0% -3.7% 1.1% -2.8% -1.4% -1.7% 4.6% -5.7%
Consumer Non-Durable -2.2% 1.1% -2.6% -14.0% -7.2% -3.1% 1.7% -11.8%
Capital Goods 0.9% -2.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 4.5% 7.3% -5.8%
Intermediate Goods -2.0% 2.0% -4.0% -15.3% -8.0% 1.6% 6.5% -7.0%
All MFG-Sales -0.7% -0.5% -1.0% -8.4% -4.3% 1.5% 5.8% -7.7%
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