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Economy in Brief

Japan LEI Falls
by Robert Brusca August 6, 2008

Japan’s leading economic index fell in June after having a small uptick in May. Over three-months the index is higher but it is deeply weaker over 24-, 12- and 6-months. The OECD index that is not quite as up-to-date has been pointing to strength since late 2007.

The Cabinet Office reported that the trend in the composite coincident index points to a worsening of the economic cycle, downgrading the view a month earlier that suggested a possible change in the business cycle. The coincident index, which measures the current state of the economy, fell sharply to 101.7 from 103.3, in line with expectations. The leading index signals are not so clear cut with the OECD’s and Japan’s own indicators pointing in very different directions – a most unusual development.

Japan's LEI and its trends
  Levels Growth (saar)
  Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo 24Mo
LEI 91.2 92.9 92.8 1.8% -5.5% -8.0% -11.5%
LEI: OECD #N/A 105.7 104.9 1.1% 0.9% -2.4% -1.1%
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