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Economy in Brief

France’s Insee Services Indicator Plunges as Weakness Spreads
by Robert Brusca July 25, 2008

France’s formerly stable service sector is weakening: The Insee indicator that was above its mean level just three short months ago is now falling sharply. The service sector barometer is now in the 37th percentile of its range with the outlook in the 35th percentile of its range at a reading of -11 compared with an average of -2.

Observed sales are in the 62nd percentile of that series’ historic range while expected sales are ominously in the 40th percentile of their range. The future is expected to be worse. Sales prices are in the high seventies to 8oth percentiles. While employment observed over the past three-months was in the 80th percentile of this historic range for the next three-months the reading for expected employment conditions is in the bottom 20th percentile.

France INSEE Services Survey Jan 2000-date
  Jul
08
Jun
08
May
08
Apr
08
%tile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Climate Indicator 94 101 102 103 36.7 68 113 83 30 102
Climate: 3-Mo MAV 99 102 103 104 50.6 55 113 85 28 102
Climate: 12-Mo MAV 106 108 109 109 79.7 24 110 91 20 102
Outlook -11 -6 -4 -3 35.5 75 9 -22 31 -2
Sales
Observed 3-Mos 7 11 11 11 62.1 41 18 -11 29 6
Expected 3-Mos 1 8 10 11 40.7 70 17 -10 27 7
Sales Price
Observed over 3-Mos 3 5 5 4 77.8 7 5 -4 9 0
Expected over 3-Mos 3 3 3 3 80.0 4 5 -5 10 0
Employment
Observed over 3-Mos 12 11 17 14 82.1 9 17 -11 28 5
Expected over 3-Mos 0 5 12 10 20.8 68 19 -5 24 5
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