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Economy in Brief

OECD LEIs Getting Ever Weaker…
by Robert Brusca July 11, 2008

The OECD cyclically adjusted leading indicators are pointing severely lower. Japan continues to point to recovery in the LEI scheme of the OPED, yet many Japanese domestic indicators continue to unravel such as its consumer confidence report, freshly released today, a report that is up-to-date for consumer feelings through June and shows continued deterioration.

German data have been getting weaker and so have French and Italian reports. The slide in the EMU region is documented here as well as in the EMU’s own statistics.

The US signal is flattening out in the OECD framework and is not showing as deep a decline as it did in the last US recession - but it is a significant drop and slowdown. The OECD metrics are pointing to a broad-based slowdown and only show good news in train for Japan where Japan’s own domestic series do not seem to reflect the OECD’s optimism.

OECD Trend-restored leading Indicators
Growth progression-SAAR
  3-Mos 6-Mos 12-Mos Yr-Ago
OECD -3.9% -2.7% -2.6% 1.8%
OECD7 -3.0% -3.2% -3.3% 1.1%
OECD Europe -4.5% -3.8% -2.8% 1.2%
OECD Japan 1.1% 0.9% -2.4% 0.0%
OECD US -3.6% -4.1% -3.7% 1.8%
Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals:
  Recent six 6-Mo Ago 12-Mo Ago 18-Mo Ago
OECD -2.7% -2.6% 2.6% 1.1%
OECD7 -3.2% -3.5% 1.8% 0.4%
OECD Europe -3.8% -1.8% 1.1% 1.3%
OECD Japan 0.9% -5.7% 0.1% 0.0%
OECD US -4.1% -3.2% 2.8% 0.8%
Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED
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