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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Nudged Up
by Tom Moeller July 8, 2008

The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that chain store sales nudged up another 0.2% last week after the 0.1% uptick during the prior period. The level of sales early this month was even with the June average after sales rose 0.5% during that month.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

During the latest week, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.4% (-2.8% y/y).

The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

Retirement Savings and Decision Errors: Lessons from Behavioral Economics from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here .

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 07/06/08 06/28/08 Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 491.5 490.7 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6%
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