Recent Updates
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Apr), IP & Capacity Utilization Advance Retail Sales (May)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (May)
- Iceland: Unemployment Rate (May)
- Thailand: Check Clearing System (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounds
Industrial
production increased 0.4% (2.0% y/y) during May and recouped a 0.4% April
decline...
U.S. Business Inventories Rise in April as Sales Decline
Total business inventories increased 0.5% (5.3% year-on-year) during April...
Italian Inflation Stays Under Wraps...but Other Pressures Don't
Italy had a long legacy as a high-inflation weak-currency country when EMU was formed...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Decline
Import prices fell 0.3% (-1.5% y/y) during May following a
0.1% April improvement...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 222,000 in the
week ending June 8 from 219,000 during the prior week...
by Robert Brusca July 7, 2008
UK IP is now lower in two of the past three months. The three-month moving average has turned negative. Weakness in the industrial economy is now spreading and deepening. The consumer sector is leading the weakness. Consumer durable goods output is down in seven of the last eight months on a Yr/Yr basis. Consumer nondurables are down yr/yr in six of the last eight months but also in eight of the last 10 months (Yr/Yr basis as well). Intermediate goods output is off in two of the past three-months Yr/Yr. While capital goods output has fallen in May on a Yr/Yr basis for the first time since December 2005.
The declines in output the current quarter (2008-Q2) are severe. For MFG the drop is -1.8% at an annual rate. Consumer durable goods output is off at a 9.4% pace in the quarter. Nondurables output is off at a 2.9% pace. Intermediate goods output is falling at a 3.3% pace. Capital goods output is rising at a 2.0% pace.
The UK is showing both inflation pressures and economic weakness. The weakness in the UK is more severe than what Europe has showed, at least as a whole. Still, the UK like Europe continues to show capital goods as the strongest sector. In this month’s report that strength is clearly on the decline.
| UK IP and MFG | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
|||
| UK MFG | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
Mar 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q1 Date |
| MFG | -0.6% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -3.8% | 0.0% | -0.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% | 0.0% | -1.8% |
| Consumer | ||||||||||
| Consumer Durables | -0.1% | -0.6% | -2.9% | -13.5% | -7.4% | 1.6% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% | -9.4% |
| Consumer-Nondurables | -0.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -5.1% | 0.0% | -2.0% | 0.2% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -2.9% |
| Intermediate | -1.0% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -5.4% | -1.3% | -3.8% | -2.7% | -2.3% | 0.3% | -3.3% |
| Capital | -0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Memo: Detail | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q4 Date |
| Food Drink & tobacco | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -4.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% | 0.4% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| Textile & Leather | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Motor Vehicles & trailer | -3.7% | 1.9% | -1.0% | -11.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 9.4% | -0.3% |
| Mining and Quarry | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 3.4% | -3.3% | -5.8% | -12.2% | -7.0% | -5.7% | 0.3% |
| Electricity, Gas & Water | -5.2% | 1.3% | -1.0% | -18.2% | 3.7% | -10.3% | -1.2% | -3.7% | 7.3% | -8.2% |
