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Economy in Brief
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
by Robert Brusca July 7, 2008
UK IP is now lower in two of the past three months. The three-month moving average has turned negative. Weakness in the industrial economy is now spreading and deepening. The consumer sector is leading the weakness. Consumer durable goods output is down in seven of the last eight months on a Yr/Yr basis. Consumer nondurables are down yr/yr in six of the last eight months but also in eight of the last 10 months (Yr/Yr basis as well). Intermediate goods output is off in two of the past three-months Yr/Yr. While capital goods output has fallen in May on a Yr/Yr basis for the first time since December 2005.
The declines in output the current quarter (2008-Q2) are severe. For MFG the drop is -1.8% at an annual rate. Consumer durable goods output is off at a 9.4% pace in the quarter. Nondurables output is off at a 2.9% pace. Intermediate goods output is falling at a 3.3% pace. Capital goods output is rising at a 2.0% pace.
The UK is showing both inflation pressures and economic weakness. The weakness in the UK is more severe than what Europe has showed, at least as a whole. Still, the UK like Europe continues to show capital goods as the strongest sector. In this month’s report that strength is clearly on the decline.
| UK IP and MFG | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
|||
| UK MFG | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
Mar 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q1 Date |
| MFG | -0.6% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -3.8% | 0.0% | -0.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% | 0.0% | -1.8% |
| Consumer | ||||||||||
| Consumer Durables | -0.1% | -0.6% | -2.9% | -13.5% | -7.4% | 1.6% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% | -9.4% |
| Consumer-Nondurables | -0.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -5.1% | 0.0% | -2.0% | 0.2% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -2.9% |
| Intermediate | -1.0% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -5.4% | -1.3% | -3.8% | -2.7% | -2.3% | 0.3% | -3.3% |
| Capital | -0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Memo: Detail | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q4 Date |
| Food Drink & tobacco | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -4.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% | 0.4% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| Textile & Leather | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Motor Vehicles & trailer | -3.7% | 1.9% | -1.0% | -11.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 9.4% | -0.3% |
| Mining and Quarry | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 3.4% | -3.3% | -5.8% | -12.2% | -7.0% | -5.7% | 0.3% |
| Electricity, Gas & Water | -5.2% | 1.3% | -1.0% | -18.2% | 3.7% | -10.3% | -1.2% | -3.7% | 7.3% | -8.2% |
