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Economy in Brief
U.S. Durable Goods Report: Strong Headline, Weaker Details
New orders for durable goods increased 1.2% (3.5% year-on-year) during December following an upwardly-revised 1.0% gain...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Slide
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell a greater-than-expected 1.2% in January...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Tumbles in February
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported manufacturing conditions weakened considerably in February with its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 216,000 in the week ended February 16, down 23,000 from the previous week's...
EMU PMIs Continue to Move Together...Mostly Lower
The composite EMU German and French indices all rose by small amounts...
by Robert Brusca July 7, 2008
UK IP is now lower in two of the past three months. The three-month moving average has turned negative. Weakness in the industrial economy is now spreading and deepening. The consumer sector is leading the weakness. Consumer durable goods output is down in seven of the last eight months on a Yr/Yr basis. Consumer nondurables are down yr/yr in six of the last eight months but also in eight of the last 10 months (Yr/Yr basis as well). Intermediate goods output is off in two of the past three-months Yr/Yr. While capital goods output has fallen in May on a Yr/Yr basis for the first time since December 2005.
The declines in output the current quarter (2008-Q2) are severe. For MFG the drop is -1.8% at an annual rate. Consumer durable goods output is off at a 9.4% pace in the quarter. Nondurables output is off at a 2.9% pace. Intermediate goods output is falling at a 3.3% pace. Capital goods output is rising at a 2.0% pace.
The UK is showing both inflation pressures and economic weakness. The weakness in the UK is more severe than what Europe has showed, at least as a whole. Still, the UK like Europe continues to show capital goods as the strongest sector. In this month’s report that strength is clearly on the decline.
| UK IP and MFG | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
|||
| UK MFG | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
Mar 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q1 Date |
| MFG | -0.6% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -3.8% | 0.0% | -0.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% | 0.0% | -1.8% |
| Consumer | ||||||||||
| Consumer Durables | -0.1% | -0.6% | -2.9% | -13.5% | -7.4% | 1.6% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% | -9.4% |
| Consumer-Nondurables | -0.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -5.1% | 0.0% | -2.0% | 0.2% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -2.9% |
| Intermediate | -1.0% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -5.4% | -1.3% | -3.8% | -2.7% | -2.3% | 0.3% | -3.3% |
| Capital | -0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Memo: Detail | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q4 Date |
| Food Drink & tobacco | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -4.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% | 0.4% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| Textile & Leather | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Motor Vehicles & trailer | -3.7% | 1.9% | -1.0% | -11.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 9.4% | -0.3% |
| Mining and Quarry | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 3.4% | -3.3% | -5.8% | -12.2% | -7.0% | -5.7% | 0.3% |
| Electricity, Gas & Water | -5.2% | 1.3% | -1.0% | -18.2% | 3.7% | -10.3% | -1.2% | -3.7% | 7.3% | -8.2% |
