Recent Updates
- China: 70-City Property Prices (Sep), Capacity Utilization, GDP (Q3)
- US: Regional Retail Sales (Sep)
- Spain: Motor Vehicle Registrations (Sep)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Sep), Retail Trade by Province (Aug)
- Canada: CPI (Sep), Retail Trade (Aug)
- Ireland: General Government Debt, General Government Transactions (Q2)
- Latvia: PPI (Sep)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Canadian Retail Sales Weaken As Inflation Slows
Canada's retail sales show relatively widespread deceleration...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Strengthen
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (7.0% y/y) during September...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Growth Continues; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index dipped to 22.2 during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 210,000 (-8.7% y/y) during the week ended October 13...
U.K. Retail Sales: Doing Well-As-Can-Be-Expected Despite September Drop
U.K. retail sales and growth have all held up remarkably well- so far...
by Robert Brusca July 7, 2008
UK IP is now lower in two of the past three months. The three-month moving average has turned negative. Weakness in the industrial economy is now spreading and deepening. The consumer sector is leading the weakness. Consumer durable goods output is down in seven of the last eight months on a Yr/Yr basis. Consumer nondurables are down yr/yr in six of the last eight months but also in eight of the last 10 months (Yr/Yr basis as well). Intermediate goods output is off in two of the past three-months Yr/Yr. While capital goods output has fallen in May on a Yr/Yr basis for the first time since December 2005.
The declines in output the current quarter (2008-Q2) are severe. For MFG the drop is -1.8% at an annual rate. Consumer durable goods output is off at a 9.4% pace in the quarter. Nondurables output is off at a 2.9% pace. Intermediate goods output is falling at a 3.3% pace. Capital goods output is rising at a 2.0% pace.
The UK is showing both inflation pressures and economic weakness. The weakness in the UK is more severe than what Europe has showed, at least as a whole. Still, the UK like Europe continues to show capital goods as the strongest sector. In this month’s report that strength is clearly on the decline.
| UK IP and MFG | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
|||
| UK MFG | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
Mar 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q1 Date |
| MFG | -0.6% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -3.8% | 0.0% | -0.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% | 0.0% | -1.8% |
| Consumer | ||||||||||
| Consumer Durables | -0.1% | -0.6% | -2.9% | -13.5% | -7.4% | 1.6% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% | -9.4% |
| Consumer-Nondurables | -0.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -5.1% | 0.0% | -2.0% | 0.2% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -2.9% |
| Intermediate | -1.0% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -5.4% | -1.3% | -3.8% | -2.7% | -2.3% | 0.3% | -3.3% |
| Capital | -0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Memo: Detail | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q4 Date |
| Food Drink & tobacco | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -4.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% | 0.4% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| Textile & Leather | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Motor Vehicles & trailer | -3.7% | 1.9% | -1.0% | -11.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 9.4% | -0.3% |
| Mining and Quarry | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 3.4% | -3.3% | -5.8% | -12.2% | -7.0% | -5.7% | 0.3% |
| Electricity, Gas & Water | -5.2% | 1.3% | -1.0% | -18.2% | 3.7% | -10.3% | -1.2% | -3.7% | 7.3% | -8.2% |
