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Economy in Brief

French Business Confidence is FLAT On the Month Outlook is Buoyant!
by Robert Brusca June 25, 2008

French business confidence in June is flat at its May level and is just above its long term average. As such it stands in the 58th percentile of its range in June. Orders, both domestic and foreign, slipped in the month but the two series still rank in the 56 to 57 percentiles of their respective ranges. That is a bit above mid-range. A reading of 50 is neutral. French businesses still see a lot of price pressure as the index for prices held at 14 which is at the 78th percentile of its range. As to production, the recent trend is sub par at -15; it ranks in the 42nd percentile, below the range mid-point. But the likely trend is firm in the 56th percentile reading on a +7 raw reading.

French businesses are not so wary of the future. They are undeterred apparently by the strong euro, the expected ECB rate hike, rising inflation prospects, financial turmoil and a weakening global economy. The survey participants remain upbeat.

INSEE Industry Survey
          Since Jan 1990 Since Jan 1990
  Jun
08
May
08
Apr
08
Mar
08
Percentile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Climate 102 102 106 108 58.0 106 123 73 50 101
Production
  Recent Trend -15 -14 -7 -6 42.2 140 44 -58 102 -5
  Likely trend 7 6 13 14 56.6 113 30 -23 53 6
Orders/Demand
  Orders & Demand -13 -10 -5 1 56.3 100 25 -62 87 -14 
  Foreign Orders & Demand -7 -6 3 1 57.3 96 31 -58 89 -10
Prices
  Likely Sales Price Trend 14 14 14 12 78.7 20 24 -23 47 1
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