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Economy in Brief

Japan’s LEI - Unrevised but Still Downbeat
by Robert Brusca June 18, 2008

Japan’s LEI was unrevised in April but continues to fall at an accelerating pace. Over 12-mos the index fell at a 5.7% pace, over six-months the rate of decline is at a rate of 6.9% and over the recent three months ended in April the index is falling at an 8.2% annual rate. But compare the composite leading indicators for Japan with that from the OECD. The OECD measure has rebounded and is continuing to show an up-cycle. This is cropping up to be one of the larger divergences between the OECD CLI and Japan’s LEI.

Japan's LEI and its trends
  Levels Growth (saar)
  Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 3M0 6M0 12Mo 24MO
LEI 92.8 90.8 93.1 -8.2% -6.9% -5.7% -10.6%
LEI: OECD 106.6 105.5 105.5 5.0% 4.7% -1.5% -1.5%
OECD LEI details
Share P 1.0 1.0 1.0 -12.6% -36.2% -24.5% -25.7%
Interest Spread (chngs) -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -1.0
Loan/Deposit #N/A 1.1 1.1 6.5% 4.2% 3.1% 6.9%
Dwellings Started 1.0 1.0 1.0 -10.8% 83.7% -7.2% -9.6%
OT-MFG #N/A 1.0 1.0 0.0% -2.0% -1.0% -4.9%
Stocks/Delivery (M&M) #N/A #N/A 1.0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Exp>Imp 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -97.4% -71.0% 110.0% -150.0%
SmallBiz #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Grey shaded rows are one month behind current; Small Biz lags by six months
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