Recent Updates
- ** New Zealand Jobs Online has changed its reported frequency from monthly to quarterly and rebased from August 2010=100 to Q4 2010=100. We are currently working on processing this data.**
- China: Gini Coefficient (2017), Construction Output Value (Q1); Myanmar: Overseas Employment (Aug)
- US: Business Employment Dynamics (Q3)
- Spain: Producer Prices (Mar)
- Norway: Earnings, Government Balance Sheet (2017)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller June 12, 2008
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 25,000 last week to 384,000 from an upwardly revised level of 359,000 during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 365,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose slightly week-to-week to 371,500 (19.4% y/y) and the recent average was up slightly from April when claims averaged 364,000. These numbers are down from March when initial claims averaged 375,000.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 58,000 and made up all of a revised 28,000 decline during the prior week. The latest level was the highest since February 2004. The four week average of continuing claims rose to 3,099, 250 and the number provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.4% after six weeks at 2.3%. The latest was the highest since mid-2004.
Lessons for Central Bankers from a Phillips Curve Framework is yesterday's speech by Fed Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn and it is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/07/08 | 05/31/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 384 | 359 | 22.3% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 3,139 | 25.6% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |