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Economy in Brief

More Discouraging News From Japan: Economic Indicators Pointing To Recession And Economy Watchers Continue Gloomy
by Louise Curley June 9, 2008

In its assessment of the April, composite leading, lagging and coincident indicators Japan's Cabinet Office remarked that the indicators were "signaling a possible turning point." The first chart, in which we plot the composite indexes for the last 22 years and the Japanese recessions in that period, appears to bear out the Cabinet Office's assessment.

The May survey of the Economy Watchers was also released today. The Economy Watchers have been reducing their appraisals of current and future conditions since early 2006 and their appraisals are now at levels reached in the last recession as can be seen in the second chart.

JAPAN May
08
Apr
08 
May
07 
M/M
CHG
Y/Y 
CHG 
2007 2006 2005
Economy Watchers Survey 
Current Conditions 32.1 35.5 46.8 -9.58 -31.41 44.9 51.4 44.9
Future Conditions 35.1 36.1 50.0 -2.77 -29.80 46.9 52.9 51.5
Economic Indicators( 2005=100) Apr
08
Mar
08 
Apr
07 
M/M
CHG
Y/Y
CHG
2007 2006 2005
Leading 92.8 90.8 98.4 2.20 -5.69 97.4 102.4 100.0
Coincident 101.7 102.4 104.4 -0.68 -2.59 104.8 103.8 100.0
Lagging 103.0 104.9 106.9 -1.81 -3.65 105.7 104.8 100.0
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