Recent Updates

  • New Zealand: GDP (Q1)
  • Thailand: Regional Property Transferred (Mar)
  • Korea: PPI, Domestic Supply Price and Output Price Index (May), 20 Days of Trade (Jun)
  • US: BOP including revisions (Q1)
  • South Africa: CPI (May), BER Manufacturing Survey (Q2); Nigeria: Public Debt, External Debt (Q1)
  • US: International Transactions Detail (Q1)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

German Trade Surplus Bulges Again in April 
by Robert Brusca June 9, 2008

Despite weakening industrial output and fast decelerating orders German trade flows produced a larger surplus again in April. Exports rose by 1.2% in the month as imports dropped by a large 2.1%. Over the last three months import growth is off at an 8% pace, while for exports growth has decelerated from 6.8% Yr/Yr to 5% over six months to 1% over 3-months.

The month’s rise in the surplus does not repeal the trend of fading German export orders. German export trends themselves are still fading. But the trade balance is, as the name suggests, a balance between what is bought and what is sold. In April although exports are still part of a declining trend, imports contracted and did so sharply, thrusting the trade scene into a surplus.

Weak growth at home is another factor that will come to be caused by a weakness in exports since Germany’s whole economy is reliant on trade and on its ability to export. The signals from weakening orders are due to hit the economy in time. For this month there is nothing inconsistent about the broad export slowdown trend and the rise in the trade surplus. The export slowdown is still in place.

German Trade trends for goods
  m/m% % Saar
  Apr-08 Mar-08 3-M 6-M 12-M 12-M Prev 2-Yr Ago
Balance* €€ 17.73 €€ 15.25 €€ 16.44 €€ 16.92 €€ 16.93 €€ 14.41 €€ 12.66
EXPORTS
All Exports 1.2% -0.8% 1.0% 5.0% 6.8% 18.3% 36.1%
Capital Goods -- -0.8% 2.8% 0.6% 5.0% 7.3% 10.7%
Motor Vehicles -- 0.8% 6.0% 5.0% 7.2% 10.1% 9.8%
Consumer Goods -- -2.3% 16.7% 5.6% 10.2% 4.3% 15.3%
IMPORTS
All Imports -2.1% 0.6% -8.0% 8.3% 5.8% 12.5% 34.0%
Capital Goods -- 2.9% 44.8% 7.0% 8.2% -3.3% 23.2%
Motor Vehicles -- 4.3% 57.7% 15.0% 9.9% 9.3% 9.8%
Consumer Goods -- -4.1% 6.7% -2.0% 0.7% 3.6% 21.3%
*Eur Blns; mo or period average; Shaded area trends lag one Month
close
large image