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Economy in Brief

German Industrial Output Trends Head Lower 
by Robert Brusca June 9, 2008

German industrial output in April fell by 0.8% for the second straight month, held back by dropping construction sector output. However, the sector indices for consumer goods and intermediate goods tumbled in April as well. Capital goods output is now down in two of the last three months and is lower by 1.9% at an annual rate compared to Q1. Manufacturing IP is flat or lower in the three recent months and is falling at a 1.3% annual rate in Q2. Manufacturing orders are off even more sharply, at a 9.3% annual rate in the new quarter.

The signal from orders is clear. It has not yet hit IP with full force. For now German IP is off in the quarter and more slowing is coming in the pipeline.

Total German IP
Saar exept m/m Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo Quarter-to-Date
IP total -0.8% -0.8% 0.2% -5.8% 2.4% 4.8% -3.1%
Consumer Goods -2.5% 0.8% -0.8% -9.5% -2.7% -0.6% -4.6%
Capital Goods 1.7% -2.2% -0.7% -4.8% 5.2% 8.9% -1.9%
Intermediary Goods -2.2% 0.9% 1.2% -0.3% 4.2% 5.7% 0.9%
Memo
Construction -2.9% -13.1% 3.1% -42.5% -2.2% -2.3% -38.0%
MFG IP -0.7% -0.3% 0.0% -4.1% 3.3% 5.7% -1.3%
MFG Orders -1.8% -0.5% -0.6% -11.1% -5.1% 4.0% -9.3%
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