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Economy in Brief

ADP Report: May Private Sector Payrolls Rose
by Tom Moeller June 4, 2008

The ADP National Employment Report, from the payroll processor, reported that private nonfarm payrolls rose 40,000 last month after a slightly revised increase 13,000 during April.

>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May employment figure will be published this Friday.For April, a 13,000 worker rise in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 29,000 worker decline in private sector payrolls as reported by BLS.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

The ADP sub-index for large payrolls fell 18,000 (-1.0% y/y) after a 15,000 worker decline during April.

A 61,000 worker increase (1.3% y/y) in small sized payrolls during May followed a 43,000 April rise.

Medium sized payrolls fell 3,000 (-0.0% y/y).

Employment in the goods producing industries fell another 37,000 (-2.1% y/y) and the rate of decline has intensified as this year has progressed. Services payrolls rose 77,000 (1.3% y/y).

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's pUSECONp database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

[email protected] May April Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) 40,000 13,000 0.7% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8%
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