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Economy in Brief

GDP Growth Revised Up: Path Holds Steady
by Robert BruscaJune 3, 2008

GDP growth was revised up from a quarterly gain of 0.7% to a gain of 0.8% in 2008-Q1. Still, Yr/Yr growth is tailing off to its lowest pace since end 2005. Myriad domestic indicators and surveys point to further slowing ahead. Private consumption growth has steeped down to just over 1%. Last quarter public consumption stepped down too- but it’s too soon to call that a trend. Capital spending spurted quarter-to-quarter but has slowed a bit Yr/Yr. Surveys on this have been mixed. Net exports are less of a driver of growth, as imports have picked up and export growth now roughly paces with them. Domestic demand shows signs of slowing. This is clearly the result of damped consumption and step back of uncertain duration in government spending and mixed trends for investment spending.

European GDP EU-15
    Consumption Capital Formation Trade Domestic
  GDP Private Public Total X
Housing
Housing X-M:
Bil E
Exports Imports Demand
% change Q/Q; X-M is Q/Q change in Blns of euros
Q1-08 3.2% 0.6% 1.5% 11.0% #N/A #N/A 1.0 7.8% 7.6% 3.1%
Q4-07 1.3% -0.2% -0.1% 2.0% 3.6% -2.6% 4.9 1.2% -1.1% 0.3%
Q3-07 2.7% 1.8% 3.3% 5.1% 5.8% 3.1% -0.7 9.3% 9.9% 2.8%
Q2-07 1.5% 2.5% 1.1% -5.4% -5.5% -4.9% 5.6 3.7% 1.0% 0.4%
% change Yr/Yr; X-M is Yr/Yr change in Gap in Blns of euros
Q1-08 2.2% 1.2% 1.4% 3.0% #N/A #N/A 10.9 5.4% 4.3% 1.6%
Q4-07 2.1% 1.2% 2.0% 3.9% 5.2% 0.1% 4.4 4.4% 4.0% 2.0%
Q3-07 2.7% 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.3% 1.7% 9.9 7.2% 6.1% 2.2%
Q2-07 2.6% 1.8% 2.4% 3.4% 3.8% 2.0% 6.6 5.9% 5.2% 2.3%
5-Yrs 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 3.6% #N/A #N/A #N/A 6.0% 5.7% 2.0%
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