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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Backtracks But Remains High-Valued As It Is for France and Germany
From Q1 2008 to date, Italian GDP actually has failed to grow and has declined by 5.8%...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes increased 1.1% during March (-1.2% y/y) to 5.600 million units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller May 23, 2008
The National Association of Realtors reported that April sales of existing homes fell 1.0% m/m to 4.89M. The decline was to the lowest level in the nine year history of the series and it was about as expected. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
The past weakness in home sales may, however, have eased. The level of April sales was equal to this past January's. That unchanged level contrasts with a -40.4% three-month rate of growth this past October.
Sales of existing single family homes fell a lesser 0.5% last month and the y/y decline of 16.1% also is somewhat less than the decline in overall sales. Like the overall series, sales were about level with this past Winter and the near-zero rate of decline contrasts with a roughly -40% growth rate this past Winter. Regardless, the series for single family homes (which has a longer history than the total) indicated that sales were at the lowest level since early 1998.
Median home prices rose 1.1% last month after a 2.3% March rise. Here again, recent downward momentum may have changed with the three-month average home price up at a 5.3% rate versus a 33% rate of decline last October. Indeed, prices may have firmed with sales but prices typically firm with the passage of Winter. And the recent 5.3% growth rate is well below that of past years.
By region, home sales in the West provided all of the lift to the April total with a 6.4% gain and the three month change in sales improved to 33.7% (AR). Elsewhere sales were less robust. In the South April sales were unchanged and three month growth was still negative at -6.0%. In the Midwest April sales fell 6.0% and the three month growth rate remained at -31.7%. In the Northeast April sales fell 4.4% but three month growth showed more firmness at 39.9%.
Any improvement in sales last month failed to lower the number of unsold homes on the market which rose 10.5% (7.9% y/y). Again, seasonal patterns may have influenced that figure as the y/y change in inventories was just 7.9% and that compared to gains of 20% to 40% during the last two years. At the current sales rate the inventory still amounts to 11.2% months supply which is a record series high. For single family homes there was a 10.7 months supply at the current sales rate.
Measuring Core Inflation: Notes from a 2007 Dallas Fed Conference can be found here.
Measurement of Unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is available here.
Existing Single Family Home Sales (Thous) |
April | y/y % | March | April '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 4,890 | -17.5 | 4,940 | 5,930 | 5,672 | 6,508 | 7,076 |
Northeast | 870 | -14.7 | 910 | 1,020 | 1,008 | 1,090 | 1,168 |
Midwest | 1,100 | -19.7 | 1,170 | 1,370 | 1,331 | 1,491 | 1,589 |
South | 1,920 | -18.6 | 1,920 | 2,360 | 2,240 | 2,576 | 2,704 |
West | 1,000 | -15.3 | 940 | 1,180 | 1,093 | 1,353 | 1,617 |
Single-Family | 4,340 | -16.1 | 4,360 | 5,170 | 4,958 | 5,703 | 6,181 |
Median Price, Total, $ | 202,300 | -8.0 | 200,100 | 219,900 | 216,617 | 222,000 | 218,217 |