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Economy in Brief

Both NTC/CIPS and CBI Index Show Withering UK MFG/Industrial Sector
by Robert Brusca May 1, 2008

The NTC and CBI indices show that the UK MFG sector is on the decline. The CBI industrial total orders reading is placed in its range percentile at 55 the fifty-fifth percentile, nearly the same relative position as for the overall NTC MFG index at 51 the fifty-first percentile. Both indices have fallen sharply ‘recently although for the NTC PMI index the drop came several months ago, while the CBI orders series took its sharp drop just this month. There is some evidence that suggests the NTC index has moved in advance of the CBI orders index in the past. Note that while the two indices seem to track each other fairly well, their respective ‘zero’ or neutral points do not match up on this two scale chart. For the CBI neutral is at zero, for the NTC report neutral is at 50. Looking at our ‘percentile of range statistics’ gets us away from this sort of dilemma. We can se that the CBI points to surging inflation on top of weakening growth.

UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey
Reported: Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 12Mo Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
Total Orders -13 7 3 2 2 55% 9 -40 49
Export Orders -12 3 -8 -4 -4 72% 3 -50 53
Stocks: Final Goods 12 12 11 7 9 50% 26 -2 28
Output Volume: Next 3M 11 18 11 9 12 70% 28 -28 56
Avg Prices for next 3M 25 25 22 21 19 100% 25 -30 55
From end 2000
Compare to CIPS MFG
  Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 12 Mo Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
UK MFG 50.96 51.25 51.24 50.60 53.18 51% 56.32 45.46 11
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