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Economy in Brief

OECD LEIs Show Continued Slowdown Signal
by Robert Brusca April 11, 2008

The OECD Leading indicators show weakness on a broad scale especially when viewed in their preferred habitat as six month percentage changes. On that basis, however, Japan is showing some more hopeful readings (increases!) even as Japanese authorities have engaged in some scenario-shifting leading to downgrading.

The US shows the deepest six-month and three-month signal of deterioration. OECD Europe at -1.8% is not as weak over six months but it shows declines over the recent six month period as well as the previous six month period unlike the US that is very weak in the current six months but had showed expansion over the previous six month period.

Neither the US nor Europe show the depth of decline in this indicator that they did at the time of the last US recession. Japan did touch that level of deterioration but only very briefing. It is now on a sharp reversal course.


OECD Trend-restored leading Indicators
Growth progression-SAAR
  3-Mos 6-Mos 12-mos Yr-Ago
OECD 0.5% -1.0% -0.4% 1.4%
OECD7 -2.6% -3.0% -1.5% 0.4%
OECD Europe -2.4% -1.8% -1.2% 1.7%
OECD Japan 4.5% 3.1% -2.2% 0.7%
OECD US -4.2% -4.8% -1.2% 0.0%
Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals:
  Recent six 6-Mo Ago 12-Mo Ago 18-Mo Ago
OECD -1.0% 0.2% 2.3% 0.6%
OECD7 -3.0% 0.0% 1.1% -0.4%
OECD Europe -1.8% -0.7% 1.2% 2.3%
OECD Japan 3.1% -7.1% 0.9% 0.4%
OECD US -4.8% 2.6% 1.4% -1.4%
Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED
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