Recent Updates
- US: GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Canada: Retail Trade (May), CPI (Jun)
- Thailand: Trade (Jun); China: Loans from Financial Institutions (Jun); Korea: Trade in Goods (Jun); Taiwan: Export Orders (Jun)
- Turkey: NCI Index (Jul)
- Turkey: Established & Liquidated (Jun-Press); Morocco: CPI, Public Finance (Jun)
- Spain: Workers Affected by Layoffs (Apr); Foreign Trade (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Robert Brusca April 11, 2008
The OECD Leading indicators show weakness on a broad scale
especially when viewed in their preferred habitat as six month
percentage changes. On that basis, however, Japan is showing some more
hopeful readings (increases!) even as Japanese authorities have engaged
in some scenario-shifting leading to downgrading.
The US shows the deepest six-month and three-month signal of
deterioration. OECD Europe at -1.8% is not as weak over six months but
it shows declines over the recent six month period as well as the
previous six month period unlike the US that is very weak in the
current six months but had showed expansion over the previous six month
period.
Neither the US nor Europe show the depth of decline in this
indicator that they did at the time of the last US recession. Japan did
touch that level of deterioration but only very briefing. It is now on
a sharp reversal course.
| OECD Trend-restored leading Indicators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth progression-SAAR | ||||
| 3-Mos | 6-Mos | 12-mos | Yr-Ago | |
| OECD | 0.5% | -1.0% | -0.4% | 1.4% |
| OECD7 | -2.6% | -3.0% | -1.5% | 0.4% |
| OECD Europe | -2.4% | -1.8% | -1.2% | 1.7% |
| OECD Japan | 4.5% | 3.1% | -2.2% | 0.7% |
| OECD US | -4.2% | -4.8% | -1.2% | 0.0% |
| Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals: | ||||
| Recent six | 6-Mo Ago | 12-Mo Ago | 18-Mo Ago | |
| OECD | -1.0% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| OECD7 | -3.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | -0.4% |
| OECD Europe | -1.8% | -0.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% |
| OECD Japan | 3.1% | -7.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| OECD US | -4.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | -1.4% |
| Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED | ||||
