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Economy in Brief
U.S. Durable Goods Report: Strong Headline, Weaker Details
New orders for durable goods increased 1.2% (3.5% year-on-year) during December following an upwardly-revised 1.0% gain...
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Tumbles in February
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported manufacturing conditions weakened considerably in February with its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline
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EMU PMIs Continue to Move Together...Mostly Lower
The composite EMU German and French indices all rose by small amounts...
by Robert BruscaMarch 21, 2008
The chart on the left shows that consumer confidence has been weaker briefly in 2004 and then again back in 1994. But at the pace that confidence is falling it may be there soon. Italy’s Sentiment indicator is in the bottom 6% of its range since 1999 but it is not far from its recession low in 1994 and it is still plunging. A number of components are on lows for this period. In 1998 a number of the components cease to be available even though the headline and other component measures do go back further in time. Still, it is clear from the longer-horizon chart as well as from the shorter-horizon table that looks only at a recovery period that the current responses by survey participants are not much like those in expansion periods and are getting to look more like they do in downturns. Other Euro area countries may be more resilient but Italy is fighting to maintain its growth. Unemployment expectations are in the top 8% of where they have been since the start of 1999. The household past, current and future financial situations all are rated as the worst in this period since 1999. The overall situation is in the bottom 6%; only 17 percent of respondents think it’s a good time to make a major purchase. See the table, the percentile rankings are telling.
Italy ISAE Consumer Confidence | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since January 1999 | ||||||||||
Mar 08 |
Feb 08 |
Jan 08 |
Dec 07 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
Consumer Confidence | 99 | 102.8 | 102.2 | 106.7 | 6.1 | 108 | 127 | 97 | 30 | 111 |
Last 12 months | ||||||||||
OVERALL SITUATION | -84 | -76 | -79 | -69 | 0.0 | 111 | -22 | -84 | 62 | -55 |
PRICE TRENDS | -17.5 | -18 | -23 | -21.5 | 40.8 | 61 | 4 | -32 | 36 | -15 |
Next 12months | ||||||||||
OVERALL SITUATION | -35 | -31 | -39 | -35 | 6.3 | 108 | 24 | -39 | 63 | -13 |
PRICE TRENDS | 23 | 22 | 24.5 | 28 | 38.1 | 55 | 49 | 7 | 42 | 24 |
UNEMPLOYMENT | 6 | 5 | -2 | 4 | 92.3 | 6 | 9 | -30 | 39 | -5 |
HOUSEHOLD BUDGET | -2 | -3 | 1 | 9 | 2.8 | 110 | 33 | -3 | 36 | 14 |
HOUSEHOLD FIN SITUATION | ||||||||||
Last 12 months | -55 | -53 | -46 | -44 | 0.0 | 111 | -7 | -55 | 48 | -29 |
Next12 months | -16 | -12 | -14 | -14 | 0.0 | 111 | 14 | -16 | 30 | -1 |
HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS | ||||||||||
Current | 54 | 61 | 53 | 60 | 79.1 | 11 | 63 | 20 | 43 | 39 |
Future | -45 | -42 | -35 | -37 | 0.0 | 111 | -9 | -45 | 36 | -23 |
MAJOR Purchases | ||||||||||
Current | -50 | -44 | -42 | -47 | 16.7 | 89 | -15 | -57 | 42 | -40 |
Future | -65 | -61 | -53 | -61 | 25.8 | 65 | -42 | -73 | 31 | -62 |
Total number of months:111 |