Recent Updates
- US: Housing Vacancies & Homeownership (Q1), FHFA Home Mortgage Terms, Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Canada: Payroll, Employment, Earnings & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market, Labor Force Survey (Q1) State Public Finance (Mar), Social Security Funds, Consolidated, Central Government Public Finances (Feb), Tax Receipts (Q1, Mar)
- South Africa: Tourism & Migration, Export & Import Price Indexes (Feb), PPI (Mar); Kenya: GDP (2017)
- UK: RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) Mortgage and Consumer
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
by Robert Brusca March 7, 2008
German IP was a breath of fresh air in January. But it may not have been made in the best of circumstances. Capital goods output surged by 6.2% m/m possibly a result of special rules favoring investment that are phasing out. Construction output skyrocketed by 11.7% m/m on what obviously was a beneficial weather effect that will not just go away but will unwind in the months ahead and suck growth out of IP. As a result, in the new quarter construction is advancing at 111% pace and capital goods output at a 40.2% annual rate - eye popping numbers. These are two special cases. Meanwhile, consumer goods output tailed in the month falling by 0.6% m/m. and intermediate goods output fell by 1% m/m. Still MFG IP rose by 1.9% in January and is up at a 19.6% pace in the new quarter. The IP numbers are in sharp contrast to the 1.5% drop in January orders and the 7.6% drop in orders in Q1.
So Germany has some cross-currents. Currently the strength is lodged in areas that look be temporary or related to expiring stimulus. The more important, lasting, force of consumer spending continues to lag. Germans looking for better times in 2008 were uniformly pinning hopes on the consumer. Consumer is now a clear laggard. The IP figure tells us the same thing other retail reports have been saying about the consumer. Moreover, the weakness in orders tell us that the surge in output is not likely to last.
Total German IP Quarter | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAAR except m/m | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-Date |
IP total | 1.8% | 1.5% | -0.3% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 18.0% |
Consumer | -0.6% | 2.7% | -1.2% | 3.5% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.9% |
Capital | 6.2% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 24.7% | 17.5% | 11.4% | 40.2% |
Intermediate | -1.0% | 3.8% | -0.2% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.7% |
Memo | |||||||
Construction | 11.7% | 2.2% | -0.2% | 68.5% | 30.8% | 4.5% | 111.3% |
MFG IP | 1.9% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 14.8% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 19.6% |
MFG Orders | -1.5% | -1.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | -7.6% |