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Economy in Brief

ADP Report: Private Payrolls Fell
by Tom Moeller March 5, 2008

The ADP National Employment Report, from the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 last month after a slightly revised increase of 119,000 during January.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure for February will be published Friday.Last month, the 119,000 rise in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls subsequently was accompanied by a 1,000 worker increase in private sector payrolls.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

The ADP sub-index for large payrolls fell 34,000 (-0.6% y/y) after an 8,000 worker rise during January.

Medium sized payrolls fell 4,000 (+0.9% y/y) during February after a 47,000 increase the prior month.

Growth in small payrolls eased to 15,000 (1.4% y/y), the weakest monthly increase since 2002.

Employment in the goods producing industries fell 70,000 (-1.8% y/y) while services rose 47,000 (1.5% y/y).

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

[email protected] February January Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) -23,000 119,000 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8%
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