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Economy in Brief

Economists Forecast No U.S. Recession in 2008
by Tom Moeller February 25, 2008

According to the National Association For Business Economists (NABE), the U.S. economy will skirt an economic downturn in 2008. During 1Q08 and 2Q08 growth on average is, however, expected to be the lowest since the end of the last recession in 2001.

Helping the economy to avoid a recession will be further cuts in the Federal funds rate to a low of 2.5% next quarter. There it is expected to remain until yearend.

Yields on the 10 Year Treasury note are expected to bottom at 3.70% this quarter.

The late '08 recovery in quarterly economic growth is expected to be at a moderate, near trend rate of just under 3.0%. For the full year, growth this year 1.8% is forecast to be the weakest since 2001.

The NABE Outlook is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Improving Risk Management in Light of Recent Market Events is today's speech by Fed Governor Randall S. Kroszner and it can be found here.

NABE Forecast 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 2009 2008 2007
U.S. Real GDP (%, AR) 0.4% 1.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 1.8% 2.5%
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