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Economy in Brief

UK Output Trends Decline as Orders Hover Showing Small Persisting Gains
by Robert Brusca February 20, 2008

The UK’s CBI report is a survey which reports purchaser type survey data as net measures (net better Vs worse responses). The report shows that output trends, while still showing expansion, have moved substantially lower. Order trends have been hovering; they show small net positive readings. This month the order series even ticked higher to a net +3 from +2 in January. Output volume expected in the next three months has improved a bit too. At +11 in February it is up from +9 in January and +3 in December. Still, it is a reading that is still below its 12-month average of 14. But prices are the real headline of this report. Price pressures continue to rise. At +22 they are accelerating and are above their 12-month average of 18. Prices for the next 3 months stand in the 95th percentile of their range. This is stronger than for orders or export orders where the rankings show them in the top 79th to 88th percentile of their ranges. Output is only in the top 30% of its range. While the BOE is cutting rates the output and orders barometers in this report are still firm but price expectations are pushing their limits.

UK Industrial Volume Data CBI Survey
Reported: Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 12-mo Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
Total Orders 2 2 8 -6 4 86% 9 -40 49
Export Orders -4 2 -4 -9 -3 87% 3 -50 53
Stocks: Final Goods 7 14 14 14 9 32% 26 -2 28
Output Volume: Next 3M 9 3 9 10 15 66% 28 -28 56
Averages Prices for Next 3M 21 15 21 14 18 93% 25 -30 55
From end 2000
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