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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Robert Brusca February 20, 2008
French and Italian orders have shown some consistency in recent years in their oscillations. Currently Italy’s trends are a bit flatter and the French trends are still a bit stronger but both saw clear evidence of losing momentum as 2008 approaches.
Over the last three months Italy’s orders are off at a 13.1% pace; French orders are off at a 0.3% pace for the same period. Italy’s foreign orders are off over 12, 6 and 3 months and are showing progressively worse results. French foreign orders are up weakly over 12 months and are lower over 6 months but have made a minor rebound in the recent three months. So while French foreign order trends are better than Italian trends they are still not solid…For the fourth quarter, French orders are dropping at a 3.8% pace Q/Q while Italy’s orders are dropping at a 3.3% annual pace. France’s foreign orders are holding up better with a mere 4% drop annualized in Q4 compared to Italy where the annual rate of decline for foreign orders is 15%.
The Euro Area is now showing some signs of growth erosion and we cannot tell if it is the strong euro at work or the effects of financial distress and lowered expectations that are having the largest impact. But France and Italy are showing signs of wear on tear in their respective industrial sectors.
Italy Orders | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saar exept m/m | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo |
Total | -5.4% | 2.9% | -1.1% | -14.1% | -8.8% | 1.6% |
Foreign | -8.1% | 3.9% | -5.8% | -34.6% | -23.1% | -0.6% |
Domestic | -4.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | -0.7% | 0.2% | 2.7% |
Memo | ||||||
Sales | -2.7% | 0.2% | -0.7% | -12.0% | -4.0% | -2.8% |
French Orders | ||||||
Saar exept m/m | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo |
Total | -2.0% | -0.3% | 2.2% | -0.3% | -7.0% | 3.8% |
Foreign | -1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.5% | -9.3% | 3.5% |