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Economy in Brief

NTC Shows a Rebound in Europe
by By Robert Brusca February 1, 2008

The NTC MFG PMIs show that EMU MFG took a hit to growth late in 2007 but has been on a steady mend since then. The EU Commission readings do not share such a benign view as that report’s industrial sector as its readings are still losing ground. The NTC framework is much more upbeat in that respect. However, the NTC data, while more upbeat in a time-series sense (momentum), has its readings relatively weaker in early 2008 compared to their past history than the EU Commission data. For example the over the same time period the EU data put industrial strength in the 76th percentile of its range stronger than NTC’s 66th percentile.

The NTC data showed eight of nine members (see table) losing momentum still in December, but in January it reports only four of nine still slipping, only the UK among them one of the larger EMU economies. In January NTC shows only two of these countries with MFG contracting (readings below 50), Italy does that for the second month running.

NTC MFG Indices
  Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Percentile
Euro-13 52.77 52.56 52.80 52.71 52.87 54.09 66.7%
Germany 54.43 53.59 53.74 53.92 54.04 55.46 71.0%
France 53.92 53.85 52.55 53.44 52.32 53.03 66.9%
Italy 50.80 50.74 51.34 50.96 51.71 52.88 52.7%
Spain 49.77 49.51 50.73 50.00 50.43 52.65 46.1%
Austria 54.10 53.21 55.00 54.10 54.16 54.38 69.4%
Greece 51.44 52.67 54.28 52.80 53.51 53.64 50.6%
Ireland 46.37 49.54 52.34 49.42 51.54 52.22 6.6%
Netherlands 53.10 54.40 54.47 53.99 55.11 56.39 61.1%
EU
UK 50.63 52.42 53.94 52.33 53.35 54.10 47.6%
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