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Economy in Brief

European Orders Surprise with a Spurt in November
by Robert Brusca January 23, 2008

With various country indices showing slowing the EMU orders aggregate for November rose and was surprisingly strong showing a gain of 2.7% following a rise of 2.5% in Oct. Two months into Q4 data show total MFG orders rising at a 17.6% annual rate. Domestic MFG orders in the zone are up at a 13.8% pace while foreign orders are up at a 26.5% pace. In Q4 German orders through November are up at a 28% pace while in France, Italy and the UK results are much worse. French orders are rising at a 1.2% annual rate, in Italy the pace is 7.1%. In the UK industrial orders are dropping at a 31% annual rate in Q4.

Clearly the EU/EMU is seeing a great deal of irregularity among members. Still, in January the ECB remains pre-occupied by inflation risk and is not following the Fed in its rate-cutting program. The orders data seem to confirm that there remains a core of strength within the Euro Area but, at the same time we can wonder how widespread it is and long lived it will be.

E-zone-13 and UK Industrial Orders And Sales
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Nov-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Oct-07
Ezone Detail Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 3-Mo 3-Mo 6-mo 6-mo 12-mo 12-mo
Manufacturing Orders 2.7% 2.5% -1.2% 17.4% 9.4% 13.0% 10.0% 11.7% 8.3%
Manufacturing Sales -- 0.1% -0.2% -- -0.5% -- 3.7% -- 5.6%
Consumer Goods -- 0.2% 0.2% -- 3.2% -- 4.1% -- 4.1%
Capital Goods -- 0.5% 0.5% -- 6.8% -- 7.1% -- 8.1%
Intermediate Goods 1.6% 4.2% -3.0% 11.1% 2.5% 10.7% 8.4% 10.6% 7.1%
Memo: MFG                  
Total Orders 2.7% 2.5% -1.2% 17.4% 9.4% 13.0% 10.0% 11.7% 8.3%
E-13 Domestic MFG orders 1.6% 4.2% -3.0% 11.1% 2.5% 10.7% 8.4% 10.6% 7.1%
E-13 Foreign MFG orders 3.9% 2.4% 0.0% 27.8% 18.6% 14.8% 13.5% 13.6% 11.2%
Countries: Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 3-Mo 3-Mo 6-mo 6-mo 12-mo 12-mo
Germany (MFG): 4.1% 4.0% -2.0% 26.8% 15.7% 13.3% 9.8% 14.0% 10.1%
France (Ind): -0.2% 2.4% -2.5% -1.3% -4.5% 2.7% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%
Italy (Ind): 3.6% -0.5% 0.6% 15.8% -2.9% 11.0% 8.4% 10.4% 6.2%
UK (Engineering Ind): -0.6% -0.7% -4.9% -22.5% -46.9% 0.7% 0.3% 2.6% 4.6%
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