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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Remained Negative
by Tom Moeller January 23, 2008

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago during December, at -0.91, was negative for the fifth consecutive month after having been negative for virtually all of last year. The three month moving average of the index at -0.67 was its lowest since 2003.

The Chicago Fed indicated that each of the four broad categories of indicators— employment, production, consumption and housing—made negative contributions to the index last month.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, manufacturing & trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The complete CFNAI report is available here.

Despite Increased Risks, Global Growth to Remain Solid in 2008 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found here

Chicago Fed December November Dec. '06 2007 2006 2005
CFNAI -0.91 -0.29 -0.43 -0.39 0.03 0.28
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