Recent Updates

  • US: New Residential Construction (Sep)
  • Canada Regional: MSIO by Province (Aug)
  • Canada: MSIO (Aug)
  • Brazil: Economic Activity Index (Aug)
  • Turkey: Short Term External Debt, Retail Sales (Aug); South Africa: Trade Conditions Survey (Sep), Retail Trade (Aug); Niger: CPI (Sep)
  • Retail Price Indices & PPI (Sep)
  • Germany: Turnover in Hotels and Restaurants, Manufacturing Orders (Aug),
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Import Prices Flat as Oil Levels Off
by Tom Moeller January 11, 2008

Overall import prices were unchanged, as expected, last month after the revised 3.3% spurt during November.

Petroleum prices, overall, eased 0.6% after the 12.7% November surge. Crude petroleum prices rose 0.6% (53.5% y/y) after a 12.0% November jump while fuel oil prices fell 5.5% (+43.5% y/y).

Less petroleum, import prices rose 0.3% after a 0.7% November gain.

During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a reduced 47% against a broader basket of currencies for industrial supplies & materials excluding petroleum rose another 0.7% (6.9% y/y). The detailed import price series can be found in the Haver USINT database.

Capital goods import prices were unchanged (0.8% y/y). Prices of computers, peripheral and semiconductors fell 0.6% (-5.3% y/y) and less the high tech sector capital goods prices rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y).

Prices for imports of nonauto consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) as apparel prices rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y). These prices had been unchanged or declining through 2004 to 2006. Prices for household goods rose 0.1% (1.2% y/y) and that y/y growth has been fairly stable.

The gain in overall export prices eased to 0.4%, half the prior month's increase. Agricultural prices surged again, last month by 2.7% (23.5% y/y) which was double the November increase. Prices for nonagricultural price goods eased to a 0.3% (4.5% y/y) rise after a 0.9% surge during November.

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stumbling Blocks or Stepping Stones to Financial Globalization? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

Import/Export Prices (NSA) December November Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Import - All Commodities 0.0% 3.3% 10.9% 4.2% 4.9% 7.5%
  Petroleum -0.6% 12.7% 50.1% 11.7% 20.6% 37.6%
  Non-petroleum 0.3% 0.7% 2.9% 2.7% 1.7% 2.7%
Export- All Commodities 0.4% 0.9% 6.0% 4.9% 3.6% 3.2%
close
large image