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Economy in Brief

German IP Slows, While Orders Grow...an Accelerate
by Robert Brusca January 9, 2008

MFG output fell in November after a rise of 0.1% in October and a flat September. Amid other circumstances this might seem a very chilling set of numbers. With this weakness the Q4 path for IP two months into the quarter is a pace of just 1.2% at an annual rate. It is only the sharp and mind blowing gains in orders that keep the erosion in Manufacturing output from seeming like more of a problem. Certainly, of the two measures, output is more important. But orders are a promise of output to come. Unfortunately there have been sizeable disconnects between orders and output before. Since mid-2006 the growth of orders has exceed the growth of output in Germany and by a wide margin. The current disconnect is even larger than what it generally has been over the past 18 months.

Total German IP
Saar except m/m Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 3-Mo 6-Mo 12-Mo Quarter to-Date
IP total -0.9% 0.1% 0.0% -3.3% 2.3% 3.5% 1.2%
Consumer goods -2.3% -0.9% 0.2% -11.6% -5.5% 0.3% -3.2%
Capital goods -0.8% 2.0% -0.5% 2.8% 7.0% 6.3% 8.9%
Intermediate goods -0.4% -0.9% 0.2% -4.4% 2.6% 4.6% -2.1%
Memo
Construction -0.7% -1.5% 0.2% -7.6% -3.4% -7.0% -5.4%
MFG IP -0.9% 0.2% -0.1% -2.9% 2.7% 4.5% 2.0%
MFG Orders 3.4% 4.0% -1.6% 25.4% 13.7% 13.6% 27.9%
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