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Economy in Brief

German Orders in Surprise Spurt
by Robert Brusca January 9, 2008

German real new orders are flying high again in November after another surprising spurt in October. After the October rise, a drop off in November orders had been expected - quite the opposite is the result. Orders are now growing at an annualized rate of 28% in the fourth quarter over Q3; domestic orders are up at a 16% pace. As in October bulk orders are responsible for the spurt in November. And a relatively new metric tells us that German new orders from outside the Euro Area fell last month. So, despite the spurt, it may be that the strong euro is taking some toll after all. German foreign orders use the definition of ‘foreign to Germany’ not to its currency area. That is one complication when looking at ‘foreign’ data of any sort for Euro Area members. Even so, the strength within the Area that German orders imply is quite remarkable, and it is in stark contrast with other measures that show a backtracking in confidence and in activity of various sorts in Germany and throughout the Euro Area.

German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin
Real and SA % M/M % Saar
  Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 3-Mo 6-Mo 12-Mo Year Ago
Total Orders 3.4% 4.0% -1.6% 25.4% 12.0% 13.6% 6.0%
  Foreign 2.8% 5.3% -0.8% 32.8% 15.2% 18.2% 5.2%
  Domestic 4.2% 2.5% -2.4% 18.1% 8.7% 8.8% 6.9%
Sector Sales
Manufacturing/Mining -0.6% 1.3% -0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 4.4% 8.0%
  Consumer Goods -0.7% 0.8% -0.3% -0.8% -0.4% 1.1% 3.8%
  Consumer Durables -0.6% -1.3% -4.0% -21.5% -11.4% -1.5% 8.2%
  Consumer Nondurable -0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 3.8% 1.9% 1.5% 3.0%
Capital Goods -2.1% 3.3% -0.2% 3.4% 1.7% 5.5% 8.6%
Intermediate Goods 1.5% -0.6% -0.2% 2.3% 1.1% 5.1% 10.1%
All Manufacturing Sales -0.7% 1.2% -0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 3.9% 7.5%
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