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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Surged at Yearend '07
by Tom Moeller January 2, 2008

Chain store sales at the end of last year surged. In the final week of 2007 sales dipped just 0.2% after gains of 2.8% and 1.4% during the prior two weeks according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

For all of December sales recovered 1.0% following modest declines during the prior four months.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

Working the other way, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell for the second week and was down for all of December for the third month in the last four.

Housing, credit and consumer expenditure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 12/29/07 12/22/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 487.7 488.8 2.3% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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