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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
RICS Survey Shows Weakening U.K. Housing Market
With the Bank of England hiking its key rate by 50 basis points and planning to squeeze its balance sheet...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession
State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2007
Personal consumption expenditures surged 1.1% last month after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise. The November increase beat Consensus expectations for a 0.7% rise. Adjusted for inflation spending rose 0.5% after the upwardly revised 0.1% uptick. Three month growth in real spending rose to 3.4% (AR).
Spending on discretionary items was firm led by a 1.8% (9.6% y/y) jump in real spending on household furniture & appliances. Spending on apparel also rose a firm 0.9% (5.6% y/y) but spending on motor vehicles fell 0.8% (+2.4% y/y). Spending on electricity surged 5.9% (6.9% y/y) but real spending on gasoline fell 0.3% (-0.6% y/y). Medical care spending rose 0.2% and spending on recreation fell 0.1%). Spending on food rose 0.7% (2.2% y/y). Real spending excluding food & energy rose 0.4% (3.2% y/y). These detailed spending figures are available in Haver's USNA database.
The PCE chain price index surged 0.6%%, lifted by higher energy prices. The core PCE price index gained a steady 0.2% but y/y growth in core prices picked up further to 2.2%. Three month growth in core prices rose to 2.9% (AR) due to faster growth in services prices where the three month growth of 4.0% was the fastest since late 2005.
Personal income during November rose 0.4% and the gain fell just short of expectations for a 0.5% rise. The October increase was unrevised at 0.2%. Three month growth in income was 4.2% (AR), its worst since June.
Lower interest rates caused a shortfall in interest income of 0.4% (+6.2% y/y) which was the same decline as in October. Conversely, growth in dividend income held steady at 0.9% (12.6% y/y), the same as during the prior two months.
Growth in wages & salaries picked back up to 0.6% (5.2% y/y) after an unchanged reading for October. Three month growth amounted to 5.3%. Factory sector wages rose 0.4% (2.2% y/y) after declining during the prior two months.Wage & salary income in the private service-producing industries rose 0.7% (6.1% y/y) after no change in October. Wages in the government sector again increased 0.4% (4.6% y/y).
Personal current taxes rose a firm 0.7% (8.1% y/y) and that left disposable personal income to rise 0.3% (5.8% y/y). Adjusted for inflation disposable personal income fell 0.3% (+2.1% y/y) for the second month of decline. That left the three month growth in real DPI negative at -0.9%, its worst since June.
Disposition of Personal Income | November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.4% | 0.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% |
Personal Consumption | 1.1% | 0.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
Saving Rate | -0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% (Nov. 06) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.6% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
Less food & energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% |