Recent Updates
- Japan: Monetary Survey (Jun)
- China Regional: China: Beijing Household Expenditure and Income (Q2)
- New Zealand: Food Price Index, PMI, Main Benefits (Jul)
- New Zealand: Jobseeker Support by Territorial Authority (Jul)
- Korea: Import & Export Price Indexes Press (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 20, 2007
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance jumped 12,000 to 346,000 after a 5,000 decline during the prior week.
The data are for the survey week for December nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 17,000 (5.2%) from the November period.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose to 343,000 (5.3% y/y), the highest level since 2005.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 12,000 after a 41,000 increase during the prior week.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.0% for the fourth consecutive week.
What Do Worker Flows Tell Us About Cyclical Fluctuations in Employment? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/14/07 | 12/07/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 346 | 334 | 8.5% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,646 | 6.3% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |