Recent Updates
- US: Business Formation Statistics, Producer Prices (Jul)
- US: Business Formation Statistics by State (Jul)
- US: National Delinquency Survey (Q2)
- US: 1ST Time Housing Affordability (Q2)
- US: Producer Price Indexes Detail by Commodity Detail (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 20, 2007
Growth in U.S. real GDP last quarter was unrevised at 4.9% (AR) after the sharp upward revision last month. The figures from the Commerce Department were as expected. Most components were little revised, including the sharp drop in corporate profits.
Last quarter's growth in GDP still is estimated to have stemmed mostly (1.4 percentage points) from improvement in net exports, led by 19.1% (10.3% y/y) growth in real exports.
Inventories added a revised 0.9 percentage points which was negligibly lower than estimated last month. Faster accumulation added 0.2 points to growth to 2Q growth.
Corporate profits are estimated to have fallen 4.9% at an annual rate (+1.8% y/y) versus an initial read of a 4.6% decline. The housing market's decline is till estimated to have lowered the financial sector' earnings by 22.7% (AR, +2.6% y/y). Domestic nonfinancial sector profitability also fell 7.0% (AR, -8.6% y/y) as costs rose. The lower dollar boosted rest of world earnings by 38.0% (AR, 36.5% y/y). Revisions to each of these figures were moderate.
Growth in final sales to domestic purchasers was left about unchanged at 2.4%.
A revised 20.7% collapse in residential investment last quarter (AR, -15.9% y/y) was little changed and subtracted 1.1 percentage points from growth during 3Q.
Strength in business fixed investment continued and was little revised at 8.7% (6.0% y/y). That added 1.0 percentage points to 3Q growth. Spending on structures grew 17.0% (16.1% y/y) and spending on equipment & software grew 5.1% (AR, 1.8% y/y).
Growth in real personal consumption expenditures was little changed at 2.8% (2.9% y/y) but it still was double growth during 2Q.
The GDP chain price index was little changed at a 1.0%.
Can You Hear Me Now? is the latest from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and analyzes recent changes to communications from the Fed. It can be found here.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 3Q '07 Final |
3Q '07 Preliminary | 3Q ' 07 Advance |
2Q '07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
Inventory Effect | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
Final Sales | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Foreign Trade Effect | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
Domestic Final Demand | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
Chained GDP Price Index | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 |