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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
by Tom Moeller December 17, 2007
The December index of manufacturing activity in New York State fell sharply to the lowest level since this past May. The level of 10.31 was half the expected 20. The figures are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Since the series' inception in 2001 there has been a 55% correlation between the index level and the three month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production.
New orders and shipments fell sharply but employment improved slightly.
In the (perhaps too) short six year history of the NY employment index, there has been an 85% correlation between it and the three month growth in overall factory sector employment.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.
Pricing pressure also fell to its lowest level since August. Since 2001 there has been an 81% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved but only slightly and remained near its lowest in six years.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey | December | November | Dec. '06 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Conditions (diffusion index) | 10.31 | 27.37 | 22.19 | 17.13 | 20.33 | 15.62 |
Prices Paid | 35.00 | 42.86 | 28.09 | 35.64 | 41.88 | 44.74 |