Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
- US: Vehicle Miles Driven by State (Jun)
- Bulgaria: Agricultural PPI (Q2) Central Bank Survey (Jul)
- Blue Chip: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2007
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance fell a modest 7,000 to 333,000 but the prior week's level was revised up slightly.
The four week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, dipped to 338,750 (4.0% y/y), near the highest level since 2005.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 after an unrevised 59,000 decline during the prior week.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.0% for the third consecutive week.
Fixing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve also from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/08/07 | 12/01/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 333 | 340 | 6.7% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,639 | 7.0% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |